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ACB Q2 F2019 Rundown Dec. 31, 2018

Firstly, this has taken a little more time as the addition of Rec has added lots of new data to play with.  Usually new data takes me a couple of Q’s to get comfortable with. So bear with me as I try out some new things. Secondly, having scanned Twitter and Reddit I find it interesting the reactions that we are seeing.  These LP’s are oil tankers NOT Zodiacs.  You couple that with the absolute Gong Show that rec roll out has been in the majority of the provinces, sprinkle in the fact that no LP seemingly gets their HC licenses when they think…

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Production Constipation from New Formats

As we look at Legal Supply vs Demand and it’s eventual equilibrium, I think it’s important to start thinking about Legal Supply a little differently.A good deal of Joe Retail is looking at 2019 and wondering if Legal Supply will finally match up with Demand. This is usually accompanied by comments that with new formats there will be greater consumer demand, as new consumers (who don’t want to combust) enter the market, and those using illicit market formats migrate to the legal market as formats are introduced.A lot of the new capacity coming on to the market is massive scale projects. The quality of…

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Every Long in Cannabis should thank Canopy… but let’s look at the deal shall we

I wasn’t going to post this, as there is a party going on. But a discussion emerged in the daily thread and I thought a more thought out post would be better.Monday’s announcement was a great day for the cannabis sector. A long term hope that many of us investors held that big alcohol, tobacco, pharma and/or other would come play HAPPENED!! I think it was earlier than most thought, but it happened. The sector owes a big thanks to Canopy. The impact of this on other possible takeover targets is already being seen.Let’s break down the deal so everybody has an understanding of…

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How much extra capital will LP’s need to raise to float payment terms for Rec and Pharmacy?

Click edit button to change Now hanging hat at r/TheCannalysts As we approach day 1 of rec we also approach non cash payment terms for sales. LCBO isn't paying cash at delivery like current patients do. The provinces will be getting approximately 90 days from receipt of goods or invoice from LP's to pay for their mj. Private rec models for distribution certainly won't get 90 days to pay like a province owned would. Many dispensaries might be on cash terms. You may think, my LP doesn't have to worry about this as they will have Direct Mail and get paid quickly. However, what…

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