Subject matter expert in physical and financial commodities, asset valuation, and capital structure.

Decoupling

This seems as timely as 'it' can be. I’ve been watching for ‘it’, and even saw a few moments in early summer I thought 'it' was beginning. ‘It’ is ‘decoupling’. It means that correlations are breaking down. Some of our longer term followers might have noticed me moaning about unity in cannabis stocks over the past year here and there. And honestly, I expected 'it' to be happening a quarter or two back. 'It' really hasn’t started to firmly emerge until now. That the correlation in share price movements has been relatively the same - has been a low level frustration for me. Because…

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Breaking into a million pieces

he market's not taking the dog days of summer too well atm if you're a long who's bought in above current levels. There's plenty of reasons for bearishness. Let's count a few of them: provincial distribution and warehousing vaporizing margins numerous early/mid/late plays who haven't delivered on timelines flux in margins by provincial schema and distribution/supply models Health Canada's convulsions around packaging & marketing taxes: prov, federal, wholesale, PST's, GST, and HST's regional favouritism This list can go on. I'm sure I've missed a few. Even within the 'good' news (goodbye ill-conceived OCS state monopoly, hello private stores!), we find out that the expected…

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Estimates vs Actuals Part 2: Broken Windows

As a consultant in my former life, I've seen alot of everything across a variety of companies and boardrooms.I was known as a 'go-start'. Which simply means: there is nothing there....here's our plan....'go-start' it.But my greatest strength was probably as diagnostician.Present a protracted problem/challenge/issue.....I'll find out what is the real driver....and address it. Hopefully durably, scalably, and for as little money as possible.Consulting gigs have many flavours, but one I came across early on in my career scared me to death. The dreaded: "Everything's Wrong' scenario.Every department head; every functional area; every point of integration; every department; every corporate VP. They're all pissed right…

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