Peer Comparisons in KGs: Projected Yield from Bio Assets, Harvest, Sold, and Delta of Harvest to Sold

This is anew set of graphs I am playing with. It is a little frustrating as not every LP provides each element of the graph. Aphria only provides one element - KGs Sold. Whereas Canopy does not provide Projected Yield from Bio Assets. And Tilray, being US GAAP, doesn't have Bio Assets. Ill start posting their respective trends later this week. Aurora and CannTrust Trend graphs will tell an interesting story.

Continue Reading
Aphria Q3 F2019 Rundown – Feb 28, 2019

[OGI will be up tomorrow] Open up the fins and MDA and follow along. Sales There a few new moving parts with Q3F2019 with the acquisition of CC Pharma on Jan. 9/19 and the ABP for a whole Q. Aphria sales increased $52 million wholly on the back of the CC Pharma and ABP acquisitions, as cannabis sales declined 20% pre excise tax from $22.3 million to $17.9 million QoQ.  CC and ABP contributed over $1 million a day in sales for the Q. Both KGs sold in Rec and medical dropped to 1,329kg and 1,274kgs decreases of 32% and 13%, respectively.  Rec revenue…

Continue Reading
TREND Analysis: “Gas in the Tank” Aphria

This will get updated after next Monday's earnings release. But it might give you an idea of what s possible for the upcoming report, As Aphria doesn't break down WIP and FG, as such I have used an Inventory Delta. Q0 = November 2018 Q0-1 = August 2018 was the Q where they destroyed plants as they did not have the staff to harvest.. Q0-2 = May 2018... And in March 2018 Phase III was licensed Q0-3= Feb 2018

Continue Reading
Peer Comparisons: Tracking last Q Sales to Inventory on Hand to Start the Next Q

I have spent a lot of time in the Income Statement with the charts I have rolled out, and even a little on the Cash Flow side with EBITDA. I decided to start playing with some graphs that would help determine if an LP would have enough "gas in the tank" [eg. Finished Goods Inventory, WIP and then Bio Assets] to be able to achieve a sales increase in the following Q. With many LP's having had the ability to "stockpile" in advance of Adult Rec, will they have shot their load in the first Q? The Peer Comparison doesn't answer that, but I'll…

Continue Reading
Aphria 1 KGs to Sales Shelf Math

I figure I would take a stab at seeing when the harvest to shelf ramp for Aphria 1 might start showing up in financials and when it should be at full capacity. 20,000 kgs/year capacity pre PIV PV is 5,000 kgs/q or 1,667/week [NOTE: This is reduced from 30,000 kgs capacity as part of facility had to be used for mother plants] 22,000 plants moved into PIV PV March 4, 2019. 55 grams a plant = 1,210 kgs incremental moved to PIV PV 12,000 plants per week thereafter. 55 grams a plant = 660 kgs incremental per week moved to PIV PV. 110,000 kgs/year…

Continue Reading
Close Menu