Aurora -Waterfall: Projected Yield Bios, Harvest and Sold [KGs]

I usually start these Trends with Canopy as they are the market cap leader. However, ACB, CannTrust and Ogi have all the elements for this graph so I will start with ACB and move to OGI and TRST before getting to the rest of the Peer group... ACB also happen to be the market leader by harvest last Q. I am tracking this for a few reasons. I want to see trend lines to see how Bios get transferred into inventory then soldI want to see how accurate the conversion is from Projected Yield to Harvest QoQI want to see how the KGs Sold…

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Peer Comparisons in KGs: Projected Yield from Bio Assets, Harvest, Sold, and Delta of Harvest to Sold

This is anew set of graphs I am playing with. It is a little frustrating as not every LP provides each element of the graph. Aphria only provides one element - KGs Sold. Whereas Canopy does not provide Projected Yield from Bio Assets. And Tilray, being US GAAP, doesn't have Bio Assets. Ill start posting their respective trends later this week. Aurora and CannTrust Trend graphs will tell an interesting story.

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Aurora Cannabis Q3 F2019 Rundown – March 31, 2019

First off… some very good disclosure in the MDA and the 1.5 hour conference call.  I think Cam said, “Aurora can have its cake and eat it too.” when commenting about having product to sell now and product to build out for Formats 2.0.  This is a very true statement. Three things to keep in mind for this Q on operations basis: Managed healthy increase in sales despite overall market being reportedly downWe are just seeing the leading edge of the Sky production capacity moving through the pipeline to sales. Next Q will be interesting for Gross Margin on this front.Someone is sitting on…

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Peer Comparisons: Tracking last Q Sales to Inventory on Hand to Start the Next Q

I have spent a lot of time in the Income Statement with the charts I have rolled out, and even a little on the Cash Flow side with EBITDA. I decided to start playing with some graphs that would help determine if an LP would have enough "gas in the tank" [eg. Finished Goods Inventory, WIP and then Bio Assets] to be able to achieve a sales increase in the following Q. With many LP's having had the ability to "stockpile" in advance of Adult Rec, will they have shot their load in the first Q? The Peer Comparison doesn't answer that, but I'll…

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Aurora Plants +EBITDA Flag in Q2 F2019 – How in the world do they get there?

NOTE: All before IFRS voodoo!! Opex = Cash related OPEX. I must say, I was quite surprised to hear Aurora planting the Positive EBITDA flag for Q4 F2019 [April 1- June 30, 2019].  Firstly, because this is quite the hill to climb in two quarters, given they are close to negative $40 million in Adj EBITDA.  And Secondly, because ACB doesn’t even disclosed Adjusted EBITDA calculations in their MDA. But in this era of C-Suites hoping to dodge direct financial metric questions like Patches O’Houlihan was tossing a wrench at them it was a pleasant surprise.  And that it has to do with one…

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