TREND Analysis – CannTrust: “Gas in the Tank”

I thought it would be good, given TRST gave Q3F19 guidance yesterday, to put up the Trend Analysis for TRST to see how much "gas they had in the tank". TRST gave guidance that they harvested a good amount of product in Q3 [not graphed above], their GM % will rebounding to a figure higher than the previous 3 Q's and negative EBITDA was sliced in half. (These positives went to battle with the equity raise bouncing the stock price around considerably yesterday.) Yet TRST share a similar deficiency to a number of the other LP's... being their FG Inventory is considerably below sales…

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Inventory in the first Q of Rec- Booking Costs and IFRS VooDoo!! Chickens have come home to roost.

I started paying attention and writing about this industry because of my surprise of how you could sell $1 worth of cannabis and show a gross margin greater than the selling price. In my world, that was very new! Yes... IFRS voodoo! The practice of carrying inventory above the lesser of its actual cost or net realizable value. This is done by running an entry through the income statement that GROSSES UP Inventory to a management determined value of no greater than the Selling price less Selling Costs less the costs already incurred. The latter item is on the balance sheet. Then when you…

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Canntrust Q4F19 Rundown – Dec. 31, 2018

This is where I insert my grumbling about having to “back in” to 4Q $’s by taking Annual Audited Statements and backing out 9-month YTD to get a Q4 stand alone. This significantly impacted Gross Margin [$2 million] and Opex [$1.3 million].  I did cobble together from MDA… but it added + 1 hour to this spread. I have used their figures in the below.  I balance to Net Operating Profit and I am within spitting distance of their adj EBITDA.  Stuff like this could be why there is this note to the MDA [page 27-28]… "As of December 31, 2018, the Company had…

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Peer Comparisons: Tracking last Q Sales to Inventory on Hand to Start the Next Q

I have spent a lot of time in the Income Statement with the charts I have rolled out, and even a little on the Cash Flow side with EBITDA. I decided to start playing with some graphs that would help determine if an LP would have enough "gas in the tank" [eg. Finished Goods Inventory, WIP and then Bio Assets] to be able to achieve a sales increase in the following Q. With many LP's having had the ability to "stockpile" in advance of Adult Rec, will they have shot their load in the first Q? The Peer Comparison doesn't answer that, but I'll…

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