CannTrust – CSI’ing The Blast Crater

When I spoke on the lift Panel in Toronto in June 2019, I mentioned that this industry “has a lot of unexploded landmines that have yet to go off”.  Well, one landmine went off yesterday that will have implications far beyond the LP that stepped on the trigger mechanism.  And the thing about “landmines” is they are largely hidden until explosion.  This one is no different. I have gone back to look at my spreads and analysis to see if there were any signs that there was a landmine of the nature of producing cannabis in unlicensed grow rooms.  Here are the Bio Assets…

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CannTrust Waterfall: Projected Yields from Biological Assets, Harvest, Sale (KGs)

You can see the ramp up of the new capacity at TRST as Projected Yield from Bio Assets has shown substantial growth. They are not "Aurora like" in their Projected Yields coming to Harvest with a 68% and 72% in past two Q's vs ACB 91%. This could be because they MIGHT be growing chemovars that need more than 12 weeks [one quarter] or they might not have the new production space dialed in for actual harvest capacity. EDIT: a community member pointed out that the average grow is 110 days according to Notes to Fins. As 110 days is > than 90 day…

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Peer Comparisons in KGs: Projected Yield from Bio Assets, Harvest, Sold, and Delta of Harvest to Sold

This is anew set of graphs I am playing with. It is a little frustrating as not every LP provides each element of the graph. Aphria only provides one element - KGs Sold. Whereas Canopy does not provide Projected Yield from Bio Assets. And Tilray, being US GAAP, doesn't have Bio Assets. Ill start posting their respective trends later this week. Aurora and CannTrust Trend graphs will tell an interesting story.

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CannTrust Q1 F2019 Rundown – March 31, 2019

Open up the fins and MDA and follow along. Sales: CannTrust sales increased by $0.7 million or 4% QoQ.  While their Medical sales increased by 13% their wholesale sales dropped by 6%. Extracts growth powered the sales increase for the period and accounts for 55% of cannabis sales up from 48% last Q. Medical sales were consistent in both increases to flower and extracts at 13%.  Flower makes up 28% of Medical sales with Extracts bringing in a strong 72% of revenues. Patient growth increased by 10,000 to 68,000 or 17%.  But as Medical sales increased only 13% the patients are not buying as…

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