Now that I have optionality models built for the Tier 1 MSOs, adding a quarter’s results is a whole bunch easier. Our previous calculation is here. Last time, I did a pro-forma Q4 calculation on Curaleaf ($CURA), and got close to where I expected optionality to land (~=10%). I was off on Goodwill and Intangibles by 250MM – it’ll come in Q1 F2021. Timing differences from acquisition and all.

They surprised in the SBC department, ramping to $16MM during the quarter. I expect this is the ‘new’ normal for as long as share price continues to sustain current levels. And it’s here I note about $CURA: it’s been said the executive there is relatively modest for compensation.

I see them having received about $46MM in SBC & more than $76MM in related party transactions and fees over the past two years, for a total of $122MM. At least, that’s what I can find. This excludes the related party transaction for the European acquisition, the company that Boris Johnson sold to himself.

All for a company that has reported losses of $129MM on $760MM in sales.

Good sales numbers to be sure. They are in ‘build’, and the US is a disjointed series of unconsolidated lemonade stands at the moment. Should beneficial regulation come in, there could be a lot of uplift. Still. It’s somewhat of a darling right now – like other’s in the MSO space. All I see is risk, and there has certainly been big reward for those holding through 2020.

Curaleaf’s ($CURA) 4th fiscal quarter of 2020 saw a change in total options reserved for their long term incentive plan…..they ‘unreserved’ some 6.9MM of them during Q4. No doubt someone broke out a year-end calculator and did the math. Due to this change, I can now reconcile to their stated totals of o/s shares & reserved options.

The preceding is the opinion of the author, and is in no way intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any security or derivative. The author holds no position in $CURA