This is our fourth quarter offering the Roundup.   We are trying to provide texture for investors.

Financial Metric Snapshot:

As always, refer to Quarter in Pictures for detail. 

Metrics of Note:

Population

Adult Use States:         118.6 million

Medical States:            125.4 million (NY NM VA will move to Adult)

Other States:                76.8 million

Retail Revenue per Q Average Store Count for the quarter.

• CL is leader at $3.6 million

• CURA GTII and TRUL are within a range of $2.5-2.9 million.  A VERY tight range.

Gross Margin:  The more vertical the better the margin. TRUL 67%

Interest Expense: CURA’s is almost double the next biggest of CL.

Goodwill/Intangibles vs PPE: When Interstate Commerce commences, the G/I generated from limited licenses will not be the “moat” they are today. CURA and VRNO hold the most G/I relative to PPE at $5.55:$1 and $5.45:$1, respectively.

NOP + Non-Cash Items – Interest – Taxes:  This, to me, is a better indicator of cash generated from operations than Adj EBITDA.  The 280e tax is a burden and will likely go away at some point cutting taxes in half.  But until then… you have to pay the tax man.

CURA GTII CL Venn Diagram

FL moves from the GTII and CURA intersection to the intersection of all three.

When you purchase CURA you get similar exposure to the 100% of GTII markets, 100% to CL markets, plus nine other states (IMO: Michigan is probably the biggest market that neither GTII nor CL are in.)

QoQ CURA opened 5 stores, GTII 2 stores and CL 9 of which * were acquired with Bluma.

Retail Store Count for Adult Use States: CURA GTII CL

NOTE: The number following the two-letter abbreviation is population by millions. The bottom is the highest population, and it declines as you move north.

California: Annualized run rate $5.2 billion.  All three have a wholesale presence in Cali but only GTII has a store.

Colorado:  $2.0 billion is annualized run rate. CURA and GTII have wholesale but no stores.

Illinois – limit 10: $1.8 billion is annualized run rate.  CL and CURA are at cap and GTII has one left.

Michigan – no limit:  $1.9 billion is annualized run rate. Went Adult Use in 2019 but have been slow to roll out stores.  Very strong population as the third biggest Adult Use state. Cura is the only one with stores operating at 4 obtained through GrassRoots.

New Jersey: Regs will be a driver in this state.  CURA 1 and GTII 2.

Massachusetts – limit 4: Annualized run rate $1.5 billion. MA is getting backlash for only 2 of existing 184 existing stores being owned by minorities. Cura has 4 stores, GTII 3 and CL 1.  CL is acquiring a MA cultivator and stores in Q4F21.

Arizona – no limit: $1.4 billion is annualized run rate.  CURA biggest lead is in Arizona of this peer group, which just approved full Adult Use in Jan 2021, at 9 stores versus one with CL and none with GTII. HARV has 15 stores. If you want a proxy for growth now that Adult Use is set to roll out, Arizona is half the population of Illinois and medical weed was $23.58 per 3.5 grams versus Illinois $60.42 per 3.5 grams. (40% cheaper in Arizona)

Nevada: $1.1 billion is annualized run rate. GTII holds a large advantage in NV, which has been slowed considerably by covid and reduced visitors, at 7 stores versus 3 CURA and none for CL.

Retail Store Count for Medical States: CURA GTII CL

NOTE: The number following the two-letter abbreviation is population by millions. The bottom is the highest population, and it declines as you move north.

Florida: CURA has 37 stores to GTII 7 and CL 8.  For reference, TRUL has 85 stores.

New York – limit 4: All three are maxed out in NY right now at 4, the present limit. They will get to add 3-4 more new stores with adult rec.

Pennsylvania – limit 18: CURA 14, GTII 13, and CL 4.  

Ohio – limit 5:  The Buckeye state has been a real clusterfuck of a rollout since 2018.  Slowly getting their act together. GTII and CL at cap, CURA 2.

Maryland – limit 4: $0.5 billion is annualized run rate. Cura maxed out at limit of 4 and GTII 3 and CL 0.

Retail Store Count- Adult Use: TRUL, HARV, TER, ACRG, AYR, VRNO

Retail Store Count- Medical Use: TRUL, HARV, TER, ACRG, AYR, VRNO

The preceding is the opinion of the author and is in no way intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any security or derivative. The author does not have a position in Curaleaf, Cresco Labs and will not start one in the next five days. The author has a position in GTII and will not start nor divest one in the next five days.