Aphria Q2 F 2018 Rundown

Well I had a chance to look foolish with a 38% sales increase and $2.5 million EBITDA, and I look half foolish. Instead of doing an MDA rundown I am going to analyze this in my more traditional fashion… like when I write credit… Income Stmt, cash flow/EBITDA and then balance sheet items of note. I’ll draw from MDA for colour. They did beat the street EPS of 0.00 at 0.04. Sales: Up 39%... [not 38%... but I missed by 2% last Q so I am trending favourably] to $8.5 million. Fist Q without inventory constraints in 4 q’s. And by “inventory constraints” I…

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Aphria MDA Q1 F2018

Q1 F2018 MDA Review… “Setting the table” [Best to have MDA to page flip with.] Recently I was chided by a CGC investor about “finally” recognizing the need for Operating Expenses (Opex) to sometimes lead sales. I referred to it as a “sales lag”. I do recognize the need, as I have built my own biz from scratch. And when you are in the early days there is a lot of hand to mouth and sleepless nights. But if luck, good fortune, understanding your market and your value proposal, and planning are all good… you just might make it. I will refer to this…

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Every Long in Cannabis should thank Canopy… but let’s look at the deal shall we

I wasn’t going to post this, as there is a party going on. But a discussion emerged in the daily thread and I thought a more thought out post would be better.Monday’s announcement was a great day for the cannabis sector. A long term hope that many of us investors held that big alcohol, tobacco, pharma and/or other would come play HAPPENED!! I think it was earlier than most thought, but it happened. The sector owes a big thanks to Canopy. The impact of this on other possible takeover targets is already being seen.Let’s break down the deal so everybody has an understanding of…

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How much extra capital will LP’s need to raise to float payment terms for Rec and Pharmacy?

Click edit button to change Now hanging hat at r/TheCannalysts As we approach day 1 of rec we also approach non cash payment terms for sales. LCBO isn't paying cash at delivery like current patients do. The provinces will be getting approximately 90 days from receipt of goods or invoice from LP's to pay for their mj. Private rec models for distribution certainly won't get 90 days to pay like a province owned would. Many dispensaries might be on cash terms. You may think, my LP doesn't have to worry about this as they will have Direct Mail and get paid quickly. However, what…

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When will the Canadian Commercial Banks start lending to the cannabis sector?

There is this general assumption that once rec happens the Canadian chartered banks are going to be falling all over themselves to lend to this sector.That could be one of the dominos that MAY need to fall. But there are bigger ones than day 1 of rec that need to be tipped.Commercial lending for Canadian banks is very homogeneous. They are subject to similar risk rating methodologies (Basel II when I was last inside), similar return requirements (RAROC: Risk Adjusted Return on Credit) they pretty well all use the same financial statement spreading software... HOMOGENEOUS.If you bid a deal to several banks there will…

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