SEDAR is a fun place at times. It’s fun when a company posts their financials on the day they’re due (Radient is MIA in this respect, and I’ve taken them off my Christmas Card list). It’s fun when a company one likes posts a good quarter. It’s also fun for some of the errata one comes across.
Last April, Supreme ($FIRE) announced an ‘at the market’ program to sell shares directly to investors, and bring much needed capital in the door. Just the other day, they posted a document on SEDAR simply titled ‘Other’…..and they’re making a monthly filing of results from that ATM program. This one covers it for the month of July.
We recently wrote about a debt re-price $FIRE undertook, and wondered out loud about how the ATM program is faring.
Here’s performance of the ATM over the past three months:
Eek. We’ve seen some pretty decent uptake in other ATM programs over the past 2 quarters, but not here.
$FIRE’s CEO has their work cut out for them on several fronts, and lighting a fire underneath potential investors is probably being thought about as hard as increasing revenue. If that lady can navigate this company forward for a year – packing 470MM shares in tow – it’ll be a hell of a turnaround.
I am attracted to where I see disconnects between asset value and equity valuations, and I’ve been taking positions on $FIRE intermittently for a couple of years now. I haven’t been caught offside yet, but what’s interesting to me is how Auxly is beginning to correlate in terms of operational profile and infrastructure and how the market is valuing the ‘middle’ (smaller than Aphria, but bigger than GTEC).
I’ve been fiddling with as much ‘middle’ as I can derive numbers from, because I’m looking for those breaks – those disconnects.
$FIRE has everything that repurposed facilities don’t. But so does Flowr, Auxly, Sundial, Zena, Aleafia, OGI….man….it’s a crowded room. And I’ve missed some. I do know that each of those in that room will be in better shape the faster another is forced to leave.
[NB – For readers, the ‘inside’ story I’ve heard about $FIRE is that when Fowler left, he took his grower with him, and it blew up their quality. That that person was the core of their initial product notability. I can’t attest to the story’s accuracy, but I can relate that I’ve heard similar stories about others……….that some growers are simply far better at it than another….and work wonders that mere mortals don’t understand. I think about that every-time I talk to Kevin Anderson from Broken Coast – our time with him taught me I know little about growing. It serves now as a reminder I still don’t…. and will be a student for life. This story about $FIRE isn’t new, but I’ve come across it a couple of times recently…. for whatever reason(s).]
The preceding is the opinion of the author, and is in no way intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any security or derivative. The author holds no position in $FIRE