I was going to do a quick look at Tinley’s Beverage Co. ($TNLY) – and see how they’re faring. I’d seen a couple of mentions about their Q3 financials recently, and realized I hadn’t walked that dog since 2018, with a cursory followup some 6 months later.

And….that itch has now been scratched, almost instantly.

It’s remains a mutt. Their latest CEO was just walked out the door, the CFO fired a short time ago, another quarter of successive losses, supply chain issues, production issues, distribution issues….you name it. This thing is an aircraft-carrier sized issue unto itself.

Looking back at that 2018 piece reminded me of a couple of Twitter flappers who’d taken great offence at my initial characterizations about $TNLY. And like the literal hundreds of other keyboard warriors I’ve had take runs at me, they melt away like snow in a heavy rain when things go sour for them.

Aside from my surprise that $TNLY still exists, it reminds me that some sucker(s) will always keep funding an ever-evolving sales line – as long as the pitch hits the right note and ear.

There’s one born every minute after all. And the legal cannabis sector has plenty of touts and carnies (and suckers) in it. TheCannalysts have recently been blocked on Twitter by the three biggest carnies of them all: Todd Harrison, Brady Cobb, and Jeff Schultz. We’d engaged them at various times, pointed out some inherent contradictions and mis-truths they’ve propagated, and been on the receiving end of many slurs and insults for the effort. Good. As another old adage goes: ‘you’re only as good as the company you keep’.

Todd Harrison and CB1 Capital were once friendly with us. One of their principals (Loren DeFalco) appeared onstage at our first business conference in Windsor. I spent some great quality time with him off-stage too.

I’d been suspect about Todd’s enthusiasm ramping up in the fall of 2020. It had been a pretty dismal year for US cannabis companies until the prospects of a Democrat victory came into full view. Since then, he’s been full tilt.

I had called him out back in February/March of this year – during that ridiculously un-hinged (and short-lived) WSB bull run. He was there loud and proud……and fully enabling…..metaphorically handing out jello-shots at a teenage dance party. For a professional, it wasn’t cool. At all. I said so.

I called him out a couple of months later too because of GoBlue’s piece on 3-Tier alcohol regulation and how it might impact legal cannabis, and around thoughts on DCC (interstate commerce). I got nothing back but silence. So did the #MSOGang (of which he helped to birth). Utter and complete radio silence – ultimately for many months – on two issues that could completely change the economic landscape and profitability of the sector.

Early on – in late April – I had a realization. His silence on these things – both before and after TheCannalysts surfacing them meant one of two things. Either he was unaware, or, he’d always known….. and yet remained silent. This is a fella – a cheerleader, heartily encouraging investors to enter the sector – but not disclosing large risk factors and the potential for capital loss.

If it’s the case of knowing about these issues and intentionally withholding information? Well, that says something that doesn’t require words.

This isn’t about a pissing match – but it does frame for how marketing is done in the modern age. Creating echo chambers is a large part of modern marketing. And I urge to reader to apply critical thinking across their investing and trading. A lack of critical thinking has led to many millions of dollars being lost. In one case I personally know of, it’s led to financial ruin.

We’ve seen many advertising jingles come out of the carnies over the past two years, with recent hysteria about SAFE simply being the latest.

I’m anticipating the next one will be ‘fundamentals’. The pitch will take the form of: “Don’t worry about politics and such, it’ll work out. Stick to the fundamentals!”

It’s a variation of DCF (discounted cash flow), excepting perhaps a different wrapper. And ‘fundamentals’ makes just as much sense as the now-retired advertising campaign of “DCF!” did during its’ heyday.

The response to those advertisements is to ask how can one define fundamentals when the regulatory landscape has yet to be determined? The deflections to that will be smooth. Keep an eye out for them.

I am proud that we are seen as pariahs by the carnies, but lament their followers now have one less opinion/perspective from being seen.

I hope the folks who have swallowed their advertising Kool-aid might come across our material – be it podcast or writing – and critically assess the very real risk to capital. I’m writing up a public post for Reddit that will compile the advertisements used by the carnies over the past couple of years. It’ll lay out the various jingles and how they change over time. It’s illustrative of how effective marketers can be in setting up a pitch.

The last thing I want to see is another hard ramp followed by another hard crash. This kind of thing does nothing for the sector except to suck in and wash out a raft of new investors ….never to return again. I’ve seen this happen four times over the past few years. It sucks.

And it’ll probably happen again too. It attracts the wrong ‘get rich quick‘ kind of people, along with the unethical, the dishonest, and even worse elements.

Keep your head up.

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The preceding is the opinion of the author, and is in no way intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any security or derivative.